This article will focus on analyzing all team’s passing offenses to determine the best teams to draft wide receivers from for both Standard & PPR scoring formats.
We’ve all been there- the first few rounds of your fantasy football draft have gone by and you’re in desperate need of a wide receiver. Here’s the question- do you take the higher projected pick from a questionable offense, think Bills/ Bears etc., or take a shot on a lower projected player from a hot offense like the Patriots or Saints?
From here I think the question becomes what type of scoring is your league? This can have a great impact so we will look at Standard scoring vs. Points Per Reception. Obviously in a Standard scoring format, completions are almost irrelevant along with most other stats besides passing touchdowns and passing yards by the team in question, whereas in a PPR league it may be more beneficial to draft a player from a team that has a less than stellar offense.
REVIEWING THE NUMBERS
So let’s dive in, looking over the team data for a Standard league the most important stat will be Passing Touchdowns with the second factor being yards produced by the passing offense. The table below shows the result of 2017 offenses sorted by the Points scored for each team, along with a few other stats I believe are relevant.
So not too many surprises – the pack was led by the Eagles (38), Seahawks (34), Patriots (32), Steelers & Lions(29), and finally the Texans/Rams/Chargers all had (28) passing touchdowns. These registered above the top 75% of the league in terms of passing TD’s and earned the color grade of green, those values which are yellow are in the top 50-75%.
It was also interesting many of the teams towards the top of the league in Passing TD’s, were not above the 75% threshold for Passing Yards. This is important to note since TD’s are often hit or miss, whereas passing yards being registered on a weekly basis are much more consistent.
In order to remain unbiased we awarded rankings to each offense depending on where they fell in the standing among the league, any yellow grades (falling between 50-75%) were given 1 point, and those with a green grade (above 75%) were given two points.
Tiers were graded based on the following chart:
In addition to providing a Tier ranking that takes into account all passing stats except interceptions, we also provide a ranking of each passing offense in terms of the fantasy points produced from each team. The “Std Rk” shows the ranking for Standard point scoring, while the “PPR Rk” provides the same for a PPR scoring format.
The scoring distribution for PPR was extremely similar to the Standard scoring format, with the Saints & Chiefs benefitting from the additional points due to receptions. I think it is safe to say you’re better off drafting receiving threats from the top half of this chart with a few injury related exceptions (Green Bay & Houston). The top 8 teams in both rankings are all solid with the only question mark in either scoring format being Seattle, who were lagging slightly in the yardage & receiving metrics.
Check out the chart below for rankings on all 32 teams: